Monday, January 29, 2024

Governor Greg Abbott Delivers a Vote of No Confidence

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January 29, 2024 – Gold prices inched a bit lower last week, while silver made a modest move upward. S&P 500 shares also rallied. Treasury yields were largely flat for the week.

There also wasn't much movement in the Federal Reserve note dollar. The DXY index opened the week at 103.25 and closed at 103.47.

Geopolitics continue to dominate the headlines. Violence may be escalating in the Middle East. Three Americans were killed in a weekend drone attack in Jordan, and there isn't much progress in negotiations for a ceasefire in Israel.

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The standoff between Texas governor Greg Abbott and the Biden Administration isn't getting much attention from the financial press. However, it is all over independent news.

 
Friday's Close
(Weekly Gain/Loss)
Monday Morning
(Gain/Loss from Friday's Close)
Gold
$2,028 (-0.6%)
$2,033 (+0.2%)
Silver
$22.99 (+0.7%)
$22.99 (unch)
Platinum
$926 (+1.3%)
$933 (+0.8%)
Palladium
$ 995 (+0.9%)
$1,006 (+1.1%)
Gold : Silver Ratio (as of Friday's closing prices) – 88.2 to 1
Governor Greg Abbott Delivers a Vote of No Confidence
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Texas Governor Greg Abbott gave up on the Biden administration doing much to secure his state's border with Mexico.

An estimated 6 million people, including large numbers of fighting age men, have been pouring illegally into border states over the past 3 years. Abbott is using the Texas national guard and state police to put up barriers.

Gov. Abbott issued a declaration in which the opening sentence reads: "The federal government has broken the compact between the United States and the States."

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Abbott claims the federal government is derelict in its duty to protect the border and that Texas has a sovereign right to defend its territory and people. Governors in 25 other states have expressed their support.

The constitutional crisis brewing over the border could be historic. For investors, the most pertinent fact may be that 26 state governors are delivering a vote of "no confidence" in the federal government.

Confidence has been shaken a lot in recent years. When it finally breaks, investors may want to be out of the way.

Confidence is the intangible force helping to hold markets up. It keeps depositors from fleeing the banks. It underpins the Federal Reserve note. It prevents periodic bouts of selling in the stock market from becoming disorderly.

Rivers of capital from both here and abroad flow into U.S. debt and equity markets because investors believe in America.

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When trouble arises, such as during an economic downturn, or something worse such as the 2008 financial crisis, investors might sell stocks or bonds rapidly.

This is what makes the times we are living in more perilous for investors. Determining which assets can serve as a safe-haven is getting harder.

If an asset's value depends on confidence in the federal government, many are thinking twice.

Confidence is waning across a broad spectrum of institutions, with the federal government very prominently among them. The next crisis of confidence might not be limited to publicly traded companies. It could include U.S. debt and the fiat Federal Reserve note itself.

There is a portion of the population whose disdain for the federal government goes deeper than mere dislike for Joe Biden.

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They view corruption as pervasive throughout federal agencies.

Anyone paying attention knows that federal debts and unfunded liabilities cannot be paid in honest money.

Investors would be wise to get prepared for market volatility to ramp up. If the selling starts, it won't necessarily be limited to stocks.

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Key Economic Data Scheduled for This Week
  • Wednesday, January 31st – FOMC Meeting Announcement. Fed officials are expected to hold rates steady at this week's meeting but many speculate that a rate cut could be coming at the next meeting in March.

  • Thursday, February 1st – ISM Manufacturing Index. Forecasters expect a modest decline in activity. The December report showed the index at 47.4, while the consensus for January is at 47.2.

  • Friday, February 2nd – Employment Report. Government jobs statistics have been one of the consistent bright spots in economic data. This week the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to deliver another rosy report with the consensus at 180,000 new jobs.
This week's Market Update was authored by Money Metals Director Clint Siegner.
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